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Recession likely, but Georgia is in better shape than most

221212 Ben Ayers economic outlook.png
Ben Ayers, dean of the University of Georgia Terry College of Business, speaks to about 500 business owners on Friday, December 9, 2022.

A mild, short recession is likely on the way next year in Georgia.

Ben Ayers, dean of UGA’s Terry College of Business made the prediction saying it will be prompted by a series of interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve Board ordered this year to slow inflation.

“A 2023 recession is not inevitable, but it would take near-perfect monetary policy plus a lucky break to avoid one,” said Ayers.

But he added that Georgia is better positioned than other states to weather the recession because of its strong labor market and several major economic development projects that will pour investment into the state and create jobs.

As a result, Georgia’s Gross Domestic Product is only likely to experience a “slight dip” of 0.2%, less than the national average.

Ayers said housing in Georgia will suffer more than other economic sectors, with housing construction slowing significantly due to higher mortgage interest rates. Prices of existing housing are expected to decline by 12% next year. But the good news is that the housing market isn’t expected to crash to the extent it did during the recession of the late 2000s.

Ayers believes an economic recovery will begin last next year.