A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
A peace plan for Gaza proposed by President Trump and his Board of Peace has been rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He said Sunday that Israeli forces would not withdraw from Gaza unless Hamas disarms first. Trump announced the outlines of the plan more than a week ago, calling it, quote, "a historic agreement." For some perspective, we're going to check in with longtime U.S. diplomat Richard Haass.
So, Richard, rejecting a plan proposed by Trump will probably upset the president. So what do you think goes into Netanyahu's calculation to do something like that?
RICHARD HAASS: Well, everything from the prime minister's calculation is the upcoming elections in Israel before the end of October. And there's not a lot of support in Israel for Hamas, given the events - the trauma - that was the October 7 attacks. Plus, Prime Minister Netanyahu is going to try to retain power through cobbling together a right-wing coalition, so hanging tough on his - on Hamas makes a lot of sense for him politically.
MARTÍNEZ: So this was initially described as an agreement for Israel to withdraw from parts of Gaza as disarmament is completed. So then the Board of Peace said Hamas needs to completely disarm first and then Israel would withdraw. So didn't Israel get what it wanted before Netanyahu said no?
HAASS: It was a little bit vague about the sequencing of...
MARTÍNEZ: OK.
HAASS: ...Disarmament. But let me just make a larger point. There was zero chance on God's green Earth that Hamas was ever going to completely disarm. I was involved heavily in disarmament in Northern Ireland. And just because an entity gives up some arms, you don't know what they're keeping. So the idea that Hamas - a group like that, which - its entire existence has been one of armed resistance, armed attacks - is going to give up its only real instrument - their power - is to me a pipe dream. So this was a deal that I - from the get-go, quite honestly, I thought had essentially no chance of ever being implemented 'cause neither side had a stake in it.
MARTÍNEZ: Netanyahu's a politician, Richard. So is President Trump. He understands politics, I would assume. So, I mean, when you say that he's looking toward - that Netanyahu's looking toward his elections in Israel, is that something that you think Trump would understand for his reason to say no?
HAASS: Yeah, and it'll be interesting to see how critical the president is of Bibi Netanyahu. They've got, if you will, bigger fish to fry, which is the entire question of Iran, the nuclear program, attacks in Lebanon on Hezbollah and so forth. So this is simply one of a number of issues that's complicating the U.S.-Israeli relationship.
My guess is between now and October - Bibi Netanyahu's got a real dilemma. On one hand, his biggest claim to political power is that he has managed Israel's relationship with its most important patron, the United States. On the other hand, he's got to look independent. He's got to look strong. So I think for - it's a real dilemma for the prime minister. And the question for the president is how much he lets this go, and how much does he pile on in frustration?
MARTÍNEZ: What will it take, you think, to get a deal between now and maybe the end of the year?
HAASS: It's not going to happen. Sorry.
(LAUGHTER)
HAASS: Sorry to be...
MARTÍNEZ: OK.
HAASS: ...So negative.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
HAASS: But in order for diplomacy to work, you have to have a incentive on the part of the parties, and neither one has an incentive for this to go forward. Israel wants to stay in Gaza, and Hamas doesn't want to give up its arms. So this is not going to happen.
MARTÍNEZ: Anything that Trump can do, maybe, to convince Netanyahu to follow the Board of Peace's plan?
HAASS: The only thing would be some type of a partial deal or something like that - almost a cosmetic deal. But you're not going to get a real one.
MARTÍNEZ: Richard Haass is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of the Substack Home & Away. Richard, thanks.
HAASS: Thank you.
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